Prediction 5: Domestic spot trading and auxiliary service rules are becoming increasingly perfect, energy storage is opening up new business models, and economic difficulties are expected to improve.
It is expected that more provinces and cities will introduce policies similar to those in Shandong and Shanxi to encourage the conversion of allocated energy storage to independent energy storage. Independent energy storage will enter the electricity spot market through more flexible methods such as "quantity quotation", and the business model of energy storage will be further expanded.

Prediction 6: In 2024, the overall energy storage market will experience oversupply, and competition in system integration will be more fierce than in the battery cell segment. More than 50% of energy storage system enterprises will be eliminated, and CR10 will share over 80% of the market share
According to preliminary statistics from GGII, there are approximately 100 energy storage system enterprises (including large storage systems, industrial and commercial storage systems, household storage systems, etc.) that have initially formed a scale in 2023, and there are still some enterprises entering gradually.
In 2024, energy storage capacity will continue to be surplus, and oversupply will become the main trend in the market. With the entry of energy storage subsidiaries of central state-owned enterprises (power generation groups/power grid companies/local energy groups) and competition from integrated enterprises with core component supply capabilities, the market share of pure integrated enterprises will continue to be squeezed, and the risk of being eliminated will greatly increase. It is expected that more than 50% of energy storage system enterprises will be eliminated. At the same time, the market share of CR10 system enterprises continues to expand and will occupy more than 80% of the market.

Prediction 7: The price of energy storage cells will remain stable at around 0.4 RMB/Wh, and the cost reduction pressure on the AC side will shift from main materials to auxiliary materials. It is expected that the price of the system (0.5C) will stabilize at 0.8 RMB/Wh, but there will still be disorderly competition below the cost price

After destocking in the second half of 2023, battery manufacturers expect the market supply to return to rationality. It is expected that the energy storage battery cells will bottom out at 0.35-0.37RMB/Wh (including tax prices for second and third tier battery cells) in 2024, and then rise to above 0.4 RMB/Wh. Compared to 2023, prices tend to be balanced throughout the year, with a fluctuation of no more than 20%.

The cost reduction of the energy storage system on the communication side will shift from main materials (battery cells, PCS) to auxiliary materials (fire protection, temperature control, etc.), starting with liquid cooling and fire protection systems. Compared to the gross profit of battery cells and PCS (<5% and 20% in 23 years, respectively), the gross profit of liquid cooling solutions and fire protection systems is over 30%. With the entry of new auxiliary material enterprises, it is expected that there is still 10-15% room for price reduction of auxiliary material systems in 24 years.

Overall, the price of the communication side energy storage system (0.5C) is consistent with the fluctuation pattern of the battery cells, with a fluctuation amplitude not exceeding 20%. However, the competition pressure in the energy storage system is significantly higher than that in the battery cell process, and disorderly and malicious low price competition will still exist.

Prediction 8: A new energy storage product equipped with 314Ah will be shipped in bulk in Q2 2024. The battery cells and PCS technology will be upgraded, but 280Ah and system products will still be the mainstream products for power energy storage

Liquid-cooled Energy Storage Container Solution (320Ah)： 

SESS20-3354 Liquid cooled Container ESS  SESS20-3834 Liquid cooled Container ESS  SESS20-5111 Liquid cooled Container ESS

314Ah is expected to become the next generation of mainstream energy storage cells, and 5MWh system products equipped with 314Ah will be shipped gradually in Q2 2024 after 3-6 months of certification. It has been announced that 300Ah+battery cells will be mass-produced in Q1 2024, but 280Ah and system products will still be the mainstream products for power energy storage in 2024.